Assumptions, Predictions, and Plans

Another old post, I really liked this one.  Although, now I think there are more options to keep steering the right way that don't necessarily involve rumble strips/feedback mechanisms.  The metaphor kinda breaks down... but, you can also steer the way by making sure you can only steer the right way. :)

Poppendieck has a beautiful quote that I really loved on this topic, I'll have to find the whole thing at some point.  But basically, "predictions don't create predictability."

--- Feb 11, 2008

One of the hardest habits to break may be the trust and reliance on our assumptions, predictions and plans. The idea that making a prediction will somehow reign in the unpredictable and lead us to reliable results. Despite repeated failures caused by the guidance of a false sense of knowledge, we continue to walk down the same path. Our reaction to the failure is to reinforce the same habit; assuming our plan was just faulty, and we should put more effort into creating better plans.  Why don't we just stop?

Trying to imagine structure and order around something that is by nature unstructured and un-orderly, only provides an illusion of control. And that illusion will only lull us into more false assumptions, bad decisions and unreliable results. Instead of trying to plan your way to success, just throw your fear and discomfort out the window. Let go of any illusion that you have control, that you know what your customers want, that your solution will solve their problem. Because you know what? You don’t know that. You just want to think you do.

So how do we get to reliable results, despite an unreliable world? By creating knowledge. So your customers have a problem to solve. How do you KNOW that your solution will solve their problem? When you’ve solved it. That’s right, not any sooner. At that point, you will be able to grasp onto a tangible reality that you have created value for your customer. This is knowledge.

Suppose your code needs to find the latest edition of a book. How do you KNOW that your code does that? You test it. At that point, you know that under some specific conditions, the code behaves as you expect. It’s concrete feedback on reality... its knowledge. How do you know that in creating this new feature, you didn’t just break the one you wrote last month? Again, through feedback. If there are tests in place to protect all existing functionality, you already know.

Even if you don’t know where you are headed, you can still steer in the right direction to reliable value. At every possible opportunity, instrument your process with feedback that builds knowledge, and let that knowledge guide you to delivering reliable value. Get your software in your customer’s hands as often as possible, so you know if you’ve added value. And if not, adjust. Find out if that code really does what you think, test your assumptions. The longer you go without feedback, the further you are likely to be off track.
Create knowledge. And Let it do the steering.